Homefield Disadvantage: The Week 9 Watch Guide

I did not realize Cleveland is two hours away from Columbus

Messi Mania’s effect is much more than just the Argentine magician playing in MLS.

Due to his popularity in the US, teams are moving their home games into bigger, NFL-sized stadiums. The most recent example is the Columbus Crew playing their match against Inter Miami in Cleveland, Ohio, at Huntington Bank Field. Sporting Kansas City did this in 2024, when they played at Arrowhead, and it made for a stunning affair.

The Haslems, who own the Crew, also own the Browns. It’s pretty clear why they moved the match, whether they say otherwise. However, it almost eliminates the home-field advantage the Crew would have if they hosted this match in Columbus.

Think about it. Forget the many Messi jerseys you’ll see. For a player and coaching staff, routine is king when it comes to sports. That routine is broken when you’re playing two hours away in an unfamiliar stadium. From the locker rooms, to probably not sleeping in your bed the night before, it’ll feel more like a road game than an away match. And yes, I see why ownership wants to try to expand their reach across Ohio. In a game of this magnitude, against an Eastern Conference rival? I’m sure some players and coaches are not exactly pleased.

“I understand why the club decided to do that. It would’ve been surprising if we don’t do it, because other clubs did it. So, let’s do it,” Wilfred Nancy said to my friend Jon Arnold on the MLS website. “The players know that. I will not put the focus on that because I know we’re going to play kind of an away home game. This is the reality. We will try to do everything to have a good performance.”

Reading between those lines, I’m sure Nancy isn’t thrilled about the extra set of circumstances the team has to take care of prior to the match. It’ll be a fun game for sure, and the crowd will be electric and roaring at every Messi touch and Crew moment. It was like that when I was with FC Dallas when we played Miami in the Leagues Cup. One of the best atmospheres I’ve been a part of at Toyota Stadium, and the players thrived off of it. We’ll see if the Crew can do the same, even in a foreign stadium.

On to the watch guide.

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Inter Miami CF at Columbus Crew SC (GOTW)

Huntington Bank Field, 3:30 PM CST | Implied Total: 2.98

How could this match not be the game of the week?

The last two unbeaten teams in MLS are squaring off in Cleveland (a sentence I never thought I’d type out) Saturday afternoon as Messi and friends take on Wilfred Nancy in what should be a fantastic affair.

The Columbus Crew haven’t been themselves since the departure of Cucho Hernandez offensively. They currently sit 14th in npxG per ASA, and their shot volume is down relative to their previous seasons. Obviously, when you sell someone of his caliber, a player who has jumped straight into La Liga and played pretty well for a team competing for Europe, you’re going to have some issues.

Yet, the team is sitting unbeaten in its first eight games and has now added Daniel Gazdag to the mix. In his years with the Union, Gazdag has had really strong performances. Often, you’d think of him as a player who has scored a lot through penalties, but that itself is a skill. Per FBRef, Gazdag has taken 23 penalties with the Union and scored 22.

But it’s not just about his PK performance; Gazdag was playing in a system that wasn’t possession-heavy (unless you talk to Ernst Tanner). He created around four shot-creating actions per 90, in a style that was direct and looking to bypass the middle as a whole. Now, he’s slotting into a role on a team that wants the ball, which is going to just inherently give him more opportunities to find players like Jacen Russell-Rowe or Diego Rossi.

How will they fare against a Miami team that also wants the ball? Miami has played seven games, been down a man for a significant amount of time in two of them, and yet, is sixth in MLS in passes. Columbus sits second. Their styles, when looking across the passing metrics on the ASA website, are very similar, from what they want to do to what they allow. For Miami, though, they boast the fifth-best xGD in MLS, and their numbers through seven matches (small N) are better than what they were last year.

We know Wilfred Nancy will not compromise to slow down Miami; he’ll want to play his way, and he probably believes that against Messi, having possession is the best defense. In their June 2024 matchup, a 2-1 victory for Miami, the Herons jumped out to a 2-0 lead early on and then ceded the ball to the Crew. The Crew had 248 passes in the MIA half during the second half, compared to Miami’s 33. This was without Lionel Messi, who was out due to an injury. In their latest match, Miami had the slight possession edge, albeit aided by a red card from Rudy Camacho.

Regardless of the circumstances around the match, the fans will be getting a treat in Cleveland with two of the best teams in our league squaring off.

1. How does Daniel Gazdag look in his second week with the Crew?

2. Will Javier Mascherano bend to Wilfred Nancy’s style of play?

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San Diego FC at Charlotte FC

Bank of America Stadium, 6:30 PM CST | Implied Total: 2.64

We’ve talked about San Diego FC quite a bit this season and their impressive run to start an expansion year. We’ve also talked about their unique style of play for a new team, much like Columbus and Miami’s ideas of owning the ball. Some people say the best defense is the best offense, and that’s what San Diego is trying to do with its possession.

Here’s the thing. San Diego has shown a clear vulnerability to the counter or direct style of play on multiple occasions. Colorado caused turnovers in the SD’s defensive third, and that wreaked havoc on CJ Dos Santos and co. San Diego leads the league in xGA in fast break opportunities, and an insistence to play out of the back will result in some bad goals being allowed. We even saw it in Wilfred Nancy’s first season at Columbus; it’s all about creating a structure and identity.

Here’s the kicker. Per ASA, the leader in fast break xG? It’s Charlotte FC, who we know is comfortable not having the ball and pressing. I wish we had more pressing metrics publicly available, but for now, we don’t. Charlotte sits in the bottom half in possession, and we saw against Atlanta the way that players such as Liel Abada can be dangerous against a team that struggles in defensive transition. The issue with Dean Smith’s team is that the defense has been leaky. Their npxGA puts them as the sixth-worst team in MLS. Who is the worst? The Colorado Rapids were able to slow down San Diego to 1.35 xG last week.

It’s another battle of styles, which makes MLS so much fun. How many other leagues are you seeing style battles giving both teams a chance to win?

1. How does Charlotte stop its defensive bleeding

2. Can San Diego’s play carry outside of the Pacific Timezone?

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Atlanta United at Philadelphia Union

Subaru Park, 6:30 PM CST | Implied Total: 2.95

Ever since Ernst Tanner went on the record and said that it was clear the Union made the right decision by firing Jim Curtin and resetting the team, Philadelphia has not won a game.

I said it on Blue Sky, and I’ll say it again. What a bizarre thing to say six matches into the season. Give it some time, let your team breathe, and maybe wait a bit for you to do a little victory lap to dunk on someone you didn’t like?

Look, the underlying numbers for the Union are amazing. They sit second in xGD but have slowed down quite a bit, suffering a 1-0 loss to NYCFC where they produced two good xG chances (.16 and above) that were both blocked. The impressive thing about the Union so far, though, has to be how they are forcing teams into completing almost 4% fewer passes than expected. That can be due to several things, but it’s clear that we have to credit the pressing and the forcing of long balls and winning those duels, resulting in a recovery of possession.

A team not having a lot of success? Atlanta United. They did not spend a boatload of money on their attack to get shut out by the New England Revolution last week, or sit tenth in npxG. ATL is just struggling to get it all together, even if Emmanuel Latte Lath is sitting on .59 npxG. I will say, it’s not everything, but it’s a bit funny seeing Aleksei Miranchuk ahead of Miguel Almiron when it comes to npxG+xAG. They need to find the synergy between these two, and oh yeah, they’re facing a Philly team that likes to attack in transition… not Atlanta’s defensive strength.

1. Can Tai Baribo get back on the scoresheet?

2. Can Aleksei Miranchuk and Miguel Almiron co-exist?

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Don’t forget to read my latest article on FAM, detailing how rosters are constructed on a year-to-year contract basis.

And finally, don’t forget to subscribe to The Hex, which is a podcast with myself, Jon Arnold, and Daniel Robertson talking about six of the hottest topics in North American soccer. We release an episode weekly right here on Substack!

Till next week!