🦫The New Guys, LinkedIn, and a Battle Down South: The Week 4 MLS Watch Guide
We're starting to build a sample size guys! Into Week 4 we go.
The Watch Guide is back after a small break as MLS released updated GAM amounts, which forced me to dive deep into those numbers. Maybe forced is a bit too strong but you know when I see salary cap data, I have to react.
We’re back with three games that I am intrigued by going into week four. Last week was a bit rough when it came to the selections; ATL-RBNY produced zero goals, DAL-CHI had chaos late, and SJ-MIN struggled to come alive until later on in the game. I went a bit chalky with my picks but tried to keep it varied! Let’s go to our first match.
CF Montreal at DC United
Audi Field, 6:30 PM CST
I wrote about CF Montreal and how their style of play has been a bit different from what we saw last season earlier. This will be more about DC United and its evolution in year two under Troy Lessene, whose twist on energy drink soccer brought a lot of optimism to the nation’s capital until… it didn’t.
DC has arguably the best forward in MLS in Christian Benteke. He is 34 years old and smashing it in MLS. In 2023, he had .50 npxG per 90. In 2024, that number became .54. His npxG+xAG was .64 and .72 respectively. The guy had 23 goals last season and won the most number of headers in MLS.
The question has become the way DC can maximize his talent. They let Mateusz Klich go to Atlanta United while keeping his DP tag and decided to go 3+3 in the roster construction model. The team also parted ways with Ted Ku-DiPietro and acquired $1.125M in cash for him. However, some of their other moves were strong, including nabbing Hosei Kijima from St. Louis City. Kijima has started all three games, can play multiple positions, and sits on your supplemental roster. He knows how to press and is an intelligent player, as evidenced by his post-match interview.
DC’s supplemental roster is probably one of the best in the league if you look closely. Fidel Barajas was acquired on loan from Chivas. Jackson Hopkins and Garrison Tubbs are both solid homegrown players. You have Kijima who’s contributing now and Jacob Murrell, who had an under-the-radar 2024 season. Along with those players we have Randall Leal who we know is on a lower salary charge, and Brandon Servania, who had good seasons in Dallas before being shipped to Toronto.
Overall, their roster has a lot of shots. Lessene has softened his directness in the first three matches and is averaging 69 more passes than what we saw in 2024. Things can change but this is what you want to see from a young coach; learn, evolve, and adapt to the league. I think Lessene is still trying to figure out his best group but we’ve seen the offense roll. Like with other teams, it’s defensively where the improvements need to be made.
Can Montreal build off of its strong play but get results?
What system can help DC not bleed on the defensive end?
Columbus Crew at San Diego FC (GOTW)
SnapDragon Stadium, 9:30 PM CST
When I first saw the MLS schedule, I did not have this as the game of the week. We’ll talk later about what I thought was going to be the GOTW but the honors are going to expansion side San Diego FC as they take on the Columbus Crew in their first big test under coach Mikey Varas.
San Diego FC is sitting high and mighty in the Western Conference, winning two of three matches including a come-from-behind win over Real Salt Lake last week. I wrote about them on Backheeled today where they are trying to do something that no expansion team has done in recent MLS history; play indirect and possession-based. Technical director Tyler Heaps has a clear vision for the side and it's starting to play out.
San Diego has success in terms of their npxG and npxGA and limiting the opponent’s chances. Anders Dreyer, the team’s DP, has had such a strong start to the season. Brought in from Anderlecht where he had .53 npxG+xA in the Belgian league, Dreyer has brought that offense to MLS, where in his three matches, he has a npxG+xA per 90 of .99. Obviously, the sample size is small but he’s been a spark for the side. Without Chucky Lozano, they’ll need him to continue producing.
The reason why I am so intrigued by this match is Heaps has mentioned the Crew quite a bit in his interview with Joe Lowery. The team that Heaps is modeling his team after is now coming into town under Wilfred Nancy, arguably one of the best coaches in the league. How will Mikey Varas fair against a system that he’s almost trying to emulate? It’s not a 1:1 comparison but the principles are there.
The Crew have been struggling to produce offensively without Cucho Hernandez, who they sold to Real Betis before the season started. Hernandez was important in multiple facets of the game but I think the key thing wasn’t his goal-scoring (okay, it’s important). He could connect in the final third and be an option. Hernandez had 30 touches in the final third again, helping advance the ball to those areas. Jacen Russell-Rowe isn’t Cucho; JRR is only averaging 15 touches in the final third. Chambost isn’t Hernandez and while he’s getting the ball in the attacking third, he hasn’t proven to be a threat offensively.
I’ve spent the off-season talking about the difficult task the Galaxy has to replace heliocentric Riqui Puig. It’s also really hard to replace a guy who walks into a La Liga starting lineup, doesn’t miss a beat, and helps the team defeat Real Madrid 2-1. I understand last week was a tough spot for them but they put up .4 xG vs NE and .6 vs the Dynamo. Now, they’re going to play a San Diego side that hasn’t allowed teams to have the ball in the final third. How are they going to fair? It’s Nancy, so I trust him, but I think Saturday night is a great test to see how quickly they need to replace Cucho. I’d start ringing the alarm bells if SD forces them to nothing.
PS- Read this analysis of San Diego FC by
:
Can San Diego continue producing in the absence of Lozano?
Will Columbus start producing or will they need to get their Cucho replacement ASAP?
Inter Miami at Atlanta United
Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Sunday Night Soccer (6:00 PM CST)
This is the original game that I thought would be the game of the week. I mean how could it not be? Atlanta spent millions on their roster, and Miami has Messi and friends. How would this not be?
After their stellar game one, Atlanta has struggled to produce offensively in its matches. They sit 22nd in MLS in npxG/shot at .09, and are not just figuring out a groove with their front players. Emmanuel Latte Lath had a couple of good opportunities (a good and a great one based on the tiers we use), but couldn’t capitalize. Miguel Almiron looks dynamic every time he touches the ball but hasn’t made himself a presence on the advanced stat sheet. Per FBRef, he’s sitting at a combined .5 npxG+xAG. I’m not saying they should be crazy high but that’s just.. low at the moment.
I’m a little worried about the fit between Aleksei Miranchuk and Almiron. Look, I get why it’s been done. Miranchuk was brought in the summer to be a No. 10, and Almiron with his dynamism and understanding of the league is not someone you pass up on. However, just look at these pass charts (that may have a bit of bias for better or for worse).
Okay, don’t believe the pass chart? Let’s look at the touch chart between the two (Miranchuk is in black, Almiron is in red).
They’re both occupying the same spaces. Almiron likes to drift centrally and that’s getting caught with Miranchuk, who’s a 10 and wants to be centrally. Almiron is a bit more wider than where he was in their game against Charlotte but these two have to figure it out for the sake of their offense. I like the rest of the team and they figured out a way to have a balance against NYRB, not allowing many chances. At the same time, they spent $50M+ on this team offensively. I know people are giving Austin a lot of shit about their performances with their offense but Atlanta is under some heat too, even if it has been fun to watch.
Here’s the thing: Atlanta wants to go after you in transition. Charlotte showed how to stop it; by being organized with their defense. Miami absolutely slowed down Charlotte by being… organized and not allowing Charlotte to get into many transition moments. Miami will want to own the ball and play to the strength of Leo Messi and co.
The question becomes if Messi will play. Messi should play; they don’t have a CCC match until April, he got some time playing in Jamaica, and I think is on track to contribute. We’ve seen three games of Miami; one with Messi (but with a red card), two without Messi (and one with a red card for the majority of the game). It’s hard to understand how they want to play but if it’s any indication of systems that Messi thrives in, they will possess the ball with Busquets, Redondo, and Segovia in the middle. The outlets of Messi and Tadeo Allende will be there.
Miami will need to have a shape in their out-of-possession structure to slow down the Atlanta United attack. Teams have not been able to play directly versus them; according to ASA, Miami has allowed the seventh-fewest average vertical passing distance in MLS. Of course, this has been influenced by red cards and more. It’s hard to even get a grasp of how Miami will lineup vs Atlanta, but I’d bet they’re taking notes from what Charlotte did to stifle the Five Stripes.
Will Messi play and how will Miami set up?
Will Atlanta adjust how Miranchuk and Almiron line up?
Other Readings:
For Backheeled, I wrote about stats that stood out in Week 3 of MLS.
Not to be a company man, but John Morrissey’s preview of the USL Championship is excellent.
John Muller unlocked all of his space space space blog, which I absolutely loved back in the day and still enjoy now.
Finally, in non-soccer news, I’ve been reading 5x5 by Royce Webb quite a bit. Jeremias Engelmann wrote about who can destroy an NBA team based on advanced metrics (he also has written about how the Mavs have messed up but we all know that).
We should be back with a cool roster-building topic on Tuesday. Till next week!
Great stuff!