Unprepared MLS: The Week 8 Watch Guide
MLS is caught unprepared for the idea of a calendar switch as the season rages on
I originally had a little topic about the Daniel Gazdag to Columbus trade for the opener of this week’s Watch Guide.
Then, we saw the random news that the MLS Board of Governors was voting on the controversial schedule change, which would align MLS with the international calendar but make it difficult for cold-weather teams to play games. The league voted to table discussions until 2027, citing facility issues, player points of view, and commercial impact.
Whether you think this is a good or bad idea, one thing stands out about this process. The way MLS has approached this topic is flat-out lazy and embarrassing, and I’ll explain why.
As many of you mentioned in replies to my BlueSky post, to make a change like this, you need to be prepared for some of your clubs to go through facility improvements. The winter cities would have to go through facility improvements, including heated fields, training facility changes, and more. You’d have to make sure sponsorships and other key stakeholders in the league are aligned. The fans should also be made aware so they can plan and be educated on why or how you are making this move.
Why the hell are you doing this vote now?
FIFA awarded the 2026 World Cup to Canada, the US, and Mexico in 2018. You’ve known that this tournament is coming for years now. Instead of being proactive, you’ve thrown together a random vote on something that can drastically change your league. If MLS was serious about bringing this idea to fruition, they should’ve been talking about implementation years ago. This gives teams time to get their facilities up to check. It gives everyone just enough time to prepare for the major change.
Instead, MLS decided to hold a vote for a 2026 change in April of 2025. Compare this to Japan, which began debating a switch in April of 2023. By December of 2023, the J League approved the move for the 2026-2027 season. Not only was it debated for that long, but down below, you can read a thread by Dan Orlowitz who details the extreme amount of work and care that the league did to show its work on why and how it would make the move.
What has MLS done? None of this. Fans in cold-weather cities are asking what the plan would be. In a move that could be good for the league, MLS has done nothing to prove why it would be. Japan has the same issues that MLS has when it comes to its system. And guess what? They figured it out, and even if they didn’t, they showed why it may be a good idea.
The 2026 World Cup is approaching soon, guys. The league is not going to do anything to capitalize on the big moment. They’re probably just hoping that the games will excite people to come to the stadiums. Also, why the hell are you considering this for 2027? Do you want two seasons to be ruined with big breaks? Stop it. You missed the boat. Wait till 2030, when the league will have to take another three-month break to account for the World Cup.
Alright, it’s time for the watch guide.
Seattle Sounders at FC Dallas
Toyota Stadium, 7:30 PM CST (Implied Total: 2.38 Goals)
Why am I anticipating this game? Statistically, it may not be the most sexy game on paper or the most exciting game one. But it’s another revenge game in Dallas, as Jesus Ferreira makes his return to his hometown club Saturday night in a game that Seattle desperately needs to get back on the right track.
Ferreira was traded to the Sounders for a 2025 international spot, Leo Chu, and up to $2.3m in GAM across three seasons. Dallas was looking to rebuild and turn a new page from its disappointing 2024 season, where they fired Nico Estevez and missed the playoffs. Ferreira had grown uncomfortable and wanted to leave, and the team granted his wish with the trade.
His start to the season has been anything but ideal. The Sounders sit in 12th place in the Western Conference, and Ferreira has zero goals and one assist. He’s started in five matches, playing in seven, and his advanced metrics are rough. JF’s npxG is .05, and his xAG is .07, which is just not even close to what an attacking player should be producing. With an obviously small sample size, Ferreira is averaging the lowest key passes per 90, the lowest shot-creating actions since 2020, and the lowest g+ in his career. His g+ is alarming; look how it is relative to his career.
You’d expect the Sounders to be struggling offensively with Ferreira’s poor early start. Except they aren’t struggling mightily; they sit 13th in npxG per ASA. Their npxGA is the fourth fewest in MLS. If you take ASA’s expected points model, SEA’s number is the tenth highest in MLS, higher than the team they're playing in FC Dallas (1.56 vs 1.41). The issue with Seattle is that their volume of shots has not resulted in as many high-quality chances. Let’s compare FC Dallas and Seattle. Their xG is virtually the same (9.8 to 9.9). Dallas has 68 shots to Seattle’s 111. As Jamon Moore’s post below shows, Dallas has four more great xG chances (.33 or above) than Seattle does with significantly fewer shots.
And look at Dallas. They’ve been able to smash and grab results based on the chances they created. Their one great chance vs Atlanta was their goal. Against SKC, Dallas scored off one great chance and one good chance. Sure, volume matters at times, but you need the quality to produce. Lucho Acosta and Petar Musa are lethal in counter moments, as has Anderson Julio, who has picked off right where he left off in Real Salt Lake.
One player I want to make a note of is Osaze Urhoghide, a player I believe is being underrated across MLS. FCD’s new centerback was one of the most expensive CBs in league history, and he has made an impact quickly. Bought from Amiens in Ligue 2, Urhoghide’s goals added number is boosted by his strong interrupting number (which I know may have some noise). Sure, he gave up the penalty vs ATL, but his physicality is a for-sure hit in MLS early on. He is averaging four recoveries a game and in possession has been very good, averaging 44 passes a game and completing almost 67% of his longer passes. Ferriera vs Urhoghide will be a sight to see. Who knows, maybe we’ll see a Luka Doncic-esque revenge game for Ferreria that can turn around his poor start.
Can Jesus Ferreira get on the scoresheet in his return match?
Will FC Dallas produce more than the bare minimum in terms of chance creation to continue its strong 2025 start?
San Diego FC at Colorado Rapids (GOTW)
Dick’s Sporting Goods Park, 8:30 PM CST (Implied Total: 2.85 Goals)
I think we can say San Diego FC is legit now.
Their start to the season has been nothing short of incredible. Led by head coach Mikey Varas, the former FC Dallas assistant turned USMNT interim coach turned SDFC head coach, the team has embarked on a style that we haven’t seen from an expansion side. They drubbed Seattle 3-0 last weekend and are looking to continue their hot streak vs the Rapids at altitude.
What about the Colorado Rapids? The Rapids were everyone’s (including me) sexy pick to be the dark horse in MLS. They’re led by an analytics-savvy technical director in Fran Taylor and have made moves that have been outside the box when it comes to accumulating draft picks or acquiring young talent in the league.
Their season has been interesting, to say the least. Their non-penalty expected goal difference is the second-worst in the league, with the New England Revolution just above them. Yet, they sit seventh in the Western Conference after getting result after result. Their npxGF is bottom ten in the league, and their npxGA is the worst in MLS. How are they doing this?
Zack Steffen is one part of the equation. Look, I’ve blasted Steffen in the past for his poor performances. However, he has been excellent to start the year, saving around five goals above expected. That makes up the difference in their npxGA and their xGA. Daniel for San Jose has been outstanding as well, but that was expected at some point. For Steffen, he has struggled, and this has been a resurgence for him early.
Colorado is going to press the hell out of San Diego and play directly. I’m not sure pressing them will work the way that they want to do, but that’s Armas’ style of play at the moment. San Diego has pacey options and can hit on the break as they did vs Seattle multiple times through Chucky Lozano and Anders Dreyer. Five touches on their third goal and they were through onto the goal.
This game could have some goals in it, but as we’ve stated earlier, Colorado can create chaos. I like what San Diego has done early, but let’s see it against a team hellbent on getting the ball back.
Can the Rapids improve their backline woes?
How does San Diego deal with the Rapids’ press?
Inter Miami FC at Chicago Fire
Solider Field, Sunday, April 13, 3:30 PM CST (Implied Total: 3.10 Goals)
I’ll keep this one short and sweet with all the talking we’ve done already.
Inter Miami has navigated this season brilliantly to start. The team sits sixth in npxG and ninth in fewest npxGA per ASA. They’ve done it in games with and without Messi. It begs the question of whether he will play Sunday, as there are plenty of other matches coming up, including the Concacaf Champions Cup semi-finals later on this month.
Miami has controlled games at its own pace but sometimes gets too carried away with itself as it did vs Toronto FC, who made it into a back-and-forth match. The Chicago Fire we know can score goals and produce chances with Jonathan Bamba, Hugo Cuypers, and Philip Zinckernagel. Cuypers has an npxG of .82, which is red hot and what we had expected from him last season as he came from Belgium. Zinckernagel and Bamba have .42 and .26 xAG, respectively, and the Fire sit eight in npxG.
With tired legs from a furious comeback mid-week, will Messi play? I really am interested in this match, as Gregg Berhalter has shown that he knows how to set up his players to play in matches like this. This game also has the second-highest implied total this weekend, meaning that Vegas believes they’ll be goals!
Will Miami be at full strength after their midweek battle vs LAFC?
Can Chicago continue its goal-scoring production?
Well, that was a lot! We’ll talk next week in the next edition of the Watch Guide.