⚽ Zaha, Eric Choupo-Moting, and No Shots on Goal: My Week 2 Watch Guide
Week 2's watch guide features a couple of old stars in MLS colors
We’re back! It’s Week 2 of my Watch Guide where I look to point out games I am intrigued by due to various reasons. It could be the crowd. It could be tactics. Hell, it could be just because I think it’s a funny matchup.
Remember, as I stated last week, we’re in the Non-Reaction Zone. You can read more about the rules while we’re in that zone here:
Enough with the intros, let’s dive right into it.
Atlanta United at Charlotte FC (GOTW)
Bank of America Stadium, 1:00 PM CST
Atlanta United is potentially must-watch TV week in and week out. I know we’re in the non-reaction zone (that’s why I said potentially) but if you watched their match vs Montreal, you saw how much fun they were. Mateusz Klich and Bartosz Slisz acted as ball-recovering mids (they had 11 recoveries) and found players like Miguel Almiron and Aleksei Miranchuk in space as they drove at defenses. Emmanuel Latte Lath is running towards the goal and Saba Lobzhandize is ready to produce wide.
I wrote about last week how I hoped Ronny Delia would get Atlanta back to the more direct, attacking style of play, and boy, he did. ATL’s avg. vertical distance (according to ASA) was the sixth most direct in MLS during week one. We’re not exactly sure if this will continue week to week, but if we know Delia’s history, it’s that he will play direct soccer. It fits this Atlanta United team to a tee.
However, I’d like to see how this all-out structure is tweaked. Atlanta also allowed the fifth most npxG in MLS during week one at 2.15. Montreal was able to carve through the middle quickly and play the ball up the field. I’m not sure if that’s a recipe for success but other MLS teams have won with an all-out attack. With ATL’s firepower, they can keep up with about everyone.
For Charlotte, look week one was not a good performance. Yes, they got the result they needed a 2-2 draw at Seattle with a late own goal. I came away not impressed with them. They had the 6th fewest npxG, and their npxG/shot was .07. This was without star player Wilfred Zaha, who was away for the birth of his child. Charlotte badly needs offensive production from him; they finished last season with the 12th fewest npxG and allowed the 12th fewest npxGA.
I was pretty high on Charlotte going into the playoffs and they promptly did… nothing offensively in three games. Yes, they have Patrick Agyemang (who I like quite a bit). Yes, they have Liel Abada, who I thought was strong during his time. The team just badly needs an offensive infusion and if you’re a Charlotte fan, you’re praying to whatever that it’s Zaha. I’m just not sold that he will be the only answer but for what the team is paying for him, he has to be.
We all know about Charlotte’s defense. Kahlina was outstanding in net last season and was the goalkeeper of the year in MLS. Malanda and Privett were strong CBs, with their goals added number both being above the average CBs (.03 and .05 respectively). The next step in their evolution under Dean Smith is an attack.
Will Atlanta shore up its defense (or was MTL just really good?)
How will Charlotte produce offensive moments?
Nashville SC at New York Red Bulls
Sports Illustrated Stadium, 6:30 PM CST
It’s funny how little hype has been given to the New York Red Bulls, even though they were the Eastern Conference winners last season. I get it - they were the seventh seed on a miracle run and chances are, they won’t replicate that again.
Or can they?
I wasn’t as low on the Eric Choupo-Moting signing as many were. It seemed like an easy signing to dunk on; Choupo-Moting is a 35 year old that played 700 minutes in 2023-24 for Bayern Munich and has played a total of ~3000 minutes across his last four Bundesliga seasons. It’s nothing impressive by any means and for him to be a full designated player is a lot.
One of the tools that I’ve enjoyed looking at is Donald Cayton’s MBAPPE ratings. You can read about the methodology on the site, but I think it does a good job rating players using FBRef metrics. MBAPPE has Choupo-Moting’s level at around a Champions League Level Squad Player for the 23-24 season (with a smaller sample size). His rating in 22-23 was even greater.
Throughout his career in limited sample sizes, Choupo-Moting’s metrics have been really good in terms of xG, xA, SCA. In their first match against my pick to win MLS Cup, FC Cincinnati, he had nine shot creating actions. I’ll play devil’s advocate; maybe less minutes means he isn’t as beat up as an older player and is a bit more fresh than one that was playing week in and week out. Plus, we’ve seen older players play really well in MLS, when they’re not on their last legs (Inter Miami, Illaramendi, Ream, Yoshida).
Nashville SC is under its first full season with former USMNT interm and assistant coach, BJ Callaghan. I saw this post from Ben Wright and was really intrigued by the changes Callaghan was making to the team
There is an intention by the way Callaghan wants to play in his narrow fashion. Nashville SC has been known for their defensive strength under former coach Gary Smith (which was the best in MLS during his time at the club). When they added Sam Surridge, there was an expectation that he would help them take the next steps offensively. Surridge was quietly a decent forward in his short time under Callaghan in 2024, with .37 npxG. In fact, according to FBRef, his npxG in MLS is .38 for both seasons, a bit down from his time in England.
Callaghan’s style was very indirect for Nashville SC’s history; it was the 7th lowest vertical passing distance in week one. We’re not trying to jump to conclusions, but that makes sense with a narrower pitch and and increased focus on passing. Against a Red Bulls team who we know will press and attempt to force issues, it’ll be interesting to analyze and see whether Callghan sticks to his play and improves the offensive unit.
Will Choupo-Moting build off a strong week one?
How will Nashville play in terms of directness in week two?
FC Dallas at Colorado Rapids
Dick’s Sporting Goods Park, 8:30 PM CST
I sat in the freezing rain (covered by a roof) to watch FC Dallas play the Houston Dynamo last week. While it was a fun time with my friends, it was not a fun time watching soccer. The climate was awful and I’m sure that affected the play on the pitch.
FC Dallas had a problem in week one that was masked by the two gifts the Dynamo gave them on their goals. Yes, it’s the first real game under coach Eric Quill but I want you to look at my friend Sebastian Bush’s pass map for the team.
When I was watching the game, I was furiously texting a group chat about how little sense this made. Petar Musa, the team’s record signing as a striker, was dropping so far deep that you could consider him a No.6 or a No.8 in their system. It was so shocking to me for the obvious; Musa should not be dropping that deep. He’s your threat up top, a guy who can be a target man and win balls through the more direct play Quill wants. Half of Musa’s touches happened in the middle third. That’s nuts.
Lucho Acosta was invisible, mainly because they struggled to connect with him. Acosta produced two key passes and and had .2 xA. They will need to figure this out if they want to win games. New signing Osaze Urhoghide was impressive in his debut. Not only was he good recovering the ball, he was good on the ball as well and looked comfortable in possession. Dallas has players in certain parts of the roster but if this passing map looks anything remotely like this five games in, we’re going to have to react.
The Rapids are coming in with no shots on target for 180 minutes. The CCC and early season MLS are hard to manage, and coach Chris Armas is tasked with both and integrating new players into their lineup. I’m not taking too much stock into their performances early; in fact I’d say this is the first test where I’m closely looking at everyone’s favorite dark horse pick.
Armas and co fully embraced his ex-Red Bulls past last weekend, playing as the most direct team in MLS, which may have been a byproduct of the STL press. The Rapids literally produced nothing in their match, with only two shots and a .2 xG. I’m sure the Rapids want to play in transition but the way that they played on Saturday does not seem like what they want to do.
We’ll get another look at how Josh Atencio fits the middle of the park. I thought he had a good first league match and was solid in the middle. He was the leading progressor up the pitch with seven progressive passes. This is more about seeing the style of how the Rapids want to play now that they don’t have another cup to look forward.
Chidozie Awaziem was a good signing for the club; I’m not sure if Cincy wanted to lose him but it was for the Rapids’ gain. He’s been solid leading the backline and I’m interested to see how the defense deals with the pace Dallas has with Anderson Julio, Acosta, and Musa leading the charge.
Can Petar Musa not be a No. 8 vs Colorado or was that planned?
How will the Rapids really play in the first game without CCC?
Other Readings
I might have to spam my content but I had two posts on Backheeled this week.
One, talking about the findings of the Roster Profiles with my friend Marc Machado.
Two, I wrote about some of the key things I saw in week one, including Jonathan Bamba’s strong performance.
On FAM, I wrote about the NBAfication of MLS and why it’s a good and bad thing
Brian McKay did an excellent job talking about how MLS is entering an era of growth
If you’re a Nashville SC fan, if you’re not following Ben Wright what are you doing?
Week two is coming up! I won’t be freezing my ass off this week so that’s a positive.
Love the column, but I'm compelled to tell you it's Deila, not Delia.