I think you have a very interesting proposal here. While it doesn’t change the mathematical interpretation of expected goals (the sum of expected values is still the expected value of the sum) I do think these ideas work towards a better use of data. If we can make the metrics less nuanced by bucketing them, I think we can move towards better informed coaching. If a team could trade 3 poor xG shots for one average xG shot, or 2 average xG shots for one good one, they will score more goals on fewer shots. The reverse is true for defense. Giving a discrete vocabulary to a continuous idea allows you to measure progress towards goals like this.
When I see a team like Austin play, especially how they played in the group stage of Leagues Cup this year, I have to think discussion like these are part of what is going on. Wolff’s defensive approach really seems aligned with this thinking. I’m hoping the new personnel will start making the approach work on offense. I haven’t been too disappointed with the goal scoring this season. It seems like a team that is being coached creatively in a way that will become more and more common in all leagues. I think there are efforts to innovate that are hard to appreciate with xG alone.
This is exactly the clarification and spotlight this stat needed. Far too often the stat is given too much weight without enough context. Really appreciate the insight and knowledge drop! We look forward to many more learning moments!
I think you have a very interesting proposal here. While it doesn’t change the mathematical interpretation of expected goals (the sum of expected values is still the expected value of the sum) I do think these ideas work towards a better use of data. If we can make the metrics less nuanced by bucketing them, I think we can move towards better informed coaching. If a team could trade 3 poor xG shots for one average xG shot, or 2 average xG shots for one good one, they will score more goals on fewer shots. The reverse is true for defense. Giving a discrete vocabulary to a continuous idea allows you to measure progress towards goals like this.
When I see a team like Austin play, especially how they played in the group stage of Leagues Cup this year, I have to think discussion like these are part of what is going on. Wolff’s defensive approach really seems aligned with this thinking. I’m hoping the new personnel will start making the approach work on offense. I haven’t been too disappointed with the goal scoring this season. It seems like a team that is being coached creatively in a way that will become more and more common in all leagues. I think there are efforts to innovate that are hard to appreciate with xG alone.
This is exactly the clarification and spotlight this stat needed. Far too often the stat is given too much weight without enough context. Really appreciate the insight and knowledge drop! We look forward to many more learning moments!